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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Matthews won · SUB R2

Elo1522

Elo1506

Jake MatthewsvsDarrius FlowersUFC Prediction Result

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Saturday, July 29, 2023Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Jake Matthews won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:37

Style matchupJake Matthews: Well-roundedvsDarrius Flowers: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(70.7%)

Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Matthews at -285 American odds

+$35 profit

$135 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Matthews has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews

Red Corner

Darrius Flowers

Blue Corner

-285

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1522

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Darrius Flowers

oldest →

vs Michael Johnson · Feb 24

SUBvs Evan Elder · Jul 24

KOvs Lando Vannata · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricDarrius Flowers

3.34

Strikes / min

3.13

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

5.35

60%

Strike defense

42%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

1.65

64%

Takedown defense

66%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 2.94 — meaningful gap-2.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake MatthewsDarrius Flowers

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Matthews(10 fights)Darrius Flowers(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.1|Blue -16.1

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -48.5|Blue +48.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetDarrius Flowers

By target zone

51% acc · 67%

Head

44% acc · 58%

82% acc · 23%

Body

100% acc · 17%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

90% acc · 25%

By position

56% acc · 78%

Distance

54% acc · 86%

40% acc · 3%

Clinch

71% acc · 14%

92% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Matthews rounds

even

Darrius Flowers rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Round 2Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control1:15

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 101

Sig Strikes

36 / 64

59%

Sig Str %

64%

71 / 113

Total Strikes

41 / 69

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:15

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darrius Flowers	30 / 56	35 / 61	1 / 1	0
1	Jake Matthews	37 / 63	42 / 68	0 / 1	0
2	Darrius Flowers	6 / 8	6 / 8	0 / 2	0
2	Jake Matthews	23 / 38	29 / 45	0 / 0	1

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25

Darrius Flowers

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4