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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jake Matthews won · SUB R1
Elo1522
Jake Matthews
Elo1490
Chidi Njokuani editorial illustration

Jake MatthewsvsChidi NjokuaniUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Saturday, July 12, 2025Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Jake Matthews won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:09

Style matchupJake Matthews: Well-roundedvsChidi Njokuani: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Chidi Njokuani wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chidi Njokuani at -122 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chidi Njokuani has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews
Red Corner
VS
Chidi Njokuani
Blue Corner
-104
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-122
(55%)
1522
Elo
1490
31
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'3"
185.42 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews
oldest →
L
vs Michael Morales · Nov 23
W
vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24
W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25
L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25
W
DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26
latest
Chidi Njokuani
oldest →
L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 23
W
vs Rhys McKee · Mar 24
W
vs Jared Gooden · Oct 24
W
KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Mar 25
L
vs Carlos Leal · Feb 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricChidi Njokuani
3.34
Strikes / min
5.16
2.62
Strikes absorbed / min
3.32
60%
Strike defense
57%
1.44
TDs / 15 min
0.00
64%
Takedown defense
75%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.72Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+1.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1594 vs 1539Strikes3.3 vs 5.2Takedowns1.4 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.80 vs 0.10Form0.6 vs 0.7
Jake MatthewsChidi Njokuani

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Chidi Njokuani(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +32.0|Blue -32.0
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetChidi Njokuani

By target zone

3
43% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
3
50% acc · 60%
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 40%

By position

2
40% acc · 67%
Distance
4
50% acc · 80%
1
50% acc · 33%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 20%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jake Matthews rounds
1
even
0
Chidi Njokuani rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control0:29
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 7
Sig Strikes
5 / 10
42%
Sig Str %
50%
5 / 9
Total Strikes
5 / 10
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:29
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chidi Njokuani5 / 105 / 100 / 00
1Jake Matthews3 / 75 / 91 / 11

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights25

Chidi Njokuani

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights10