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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Matthews won · Decision R3

Elo1522

Elo1476

Jake MatthewsvsCarlston HarrisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, May 30, 2026Macau, China

Official fight result

Jake Matthews won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Carlston Harris

Style matchupJake Matthews: Well-roundedvsCarlston Harris: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlston Harris threatens submissions; Jake Matthews has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews

Red Corner

Carlston Harris

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1522

Elo

1476

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Michael Morales · Nov 23

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

latest

Carlston HarrisL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Feb 22

vs Jared Gooden · Mar 23

SUBvs Jeremiah Wells · Aug 23

KOvs Khaos Williams · May 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricCarlston Harris

3.34

Strikes / min

3.79

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

60%

Strike defense

54%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

1.46

64%

Takedown defense

55%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Matthews(10 fights)Carlston Harris(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +46.2|Blue -46.2

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -504.0|Blue +504.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetCarlston Harris

By target zone

53% acc · 84%

Head

21% acc · 44%

100% acc · 16%

Body

85% acc · 41%

Leg

80% acc · 15%

By position

55% acc · 89%

Distance

36% acc · 100%

Clinch

86% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Matthews rounds

even

Carlston Harris rounds

Round 1Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control0:20

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control4:25

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 3Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control4:45

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 96

Sig Strikes

27 / 75

73.7%

Sig Str %

34.5%

109 / 173

Total Strikes

40 / 88

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

9:30

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carlston Harris	25 / 69	25 / 69	0 / 2
1	Jake Matthews	46 / 83	46 / 83	0 / 0
2	Carlston Harris	0 / 0	7 / 7	0 / 1
2	Jake Matthews	1 / 1	22 / 26	0 / 0
3	Carlston Harris	2 / 6	8 / 12	0 / 0
3	Jake Matthews	8 / 12	41 / 64	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 46% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked May 29, 2026, 3:48 PM UTC · never rewritten

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25

Carlston Harris

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8