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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Matthews won · S-DEC R3

Elo1522

Elo1363

Jake MatthewsvsBojan VelickovicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · Saturday, November 18, 2017Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Jake Matthews won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Bojan Velickovic wins(60.2%)

Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bojan Velickovic at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Bojan Velickovic (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews

Red Corner

Bojan Velickovic

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1522

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Bojan Velickovic

oldest →

vs Alessio Di Chirico · Apr 16

vs Sultan Aliev · Dec 16

KOvs Nico Musoke · May 17

vs Darren Till · Sep 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricBojan Velickovic

3.34

Strikes / min

2.18

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.31

60%

Strike defense

57%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

0.67

64%

Takedown defense

55%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake MatthewsBojan Velickovic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Matthews(10 fights)Bojan Velickovic(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +159.7|Blue -159.7

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +280.0|Blue -280.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetBojan Velickovic

By target zone

58% acc · 90%

Head

49% acc · 83%

50% acc · 5%

Body

50% acc · 8%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

67% acc · 8%

By position

44% acc · 55%

Distance

32% acc · 38%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

69% acc · 38%

100% acc · 40%

Ground

86% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Matthews rounds

even

Bojan Velickovic rounds

Round 1Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns2

Control4:32

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Bojan Velickovic edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:10

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:44Control

Round 3Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control2:23

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:52Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 34

Sig Strikes

24 / 48

44%

Sig Str %

53.3%

50 / 69

Total Strikes

113 / 163

4 / 11

TDs

1 / 1

42.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

7:05

Ctrl Time

4:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bojan Velickovic	8 / 12	59 / 73	0 / 0	0
1	Jake Matthews	0 / 3	6 / 12	2 / 7	0
2	Bojan Velickovic	10 / 25	29 / 50	0 / 0	1
2	Jake Matthews	8 / 17	8 / 17	0 / 2	0
3	Bojan Velickovic	6 / 11	25 / 40	1 / 1	0
3	Jake Matthews	12 / 14	36 / 40	2 / 2	0

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25

Bojan Velickovic

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights5