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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Rocco Martin won · SUB R3

Elo1522

Elo1492

Jake MatthewsvsAnthony Rocco MartinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · Saturday, December 1, 2018Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Anthony Rocco Martin won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:19

Style matchupJake Matthews: Well-roundedvsAnthony Rocco Martin: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Anthony Rocco Martin wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Anthony Rocco Martin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Rocco Martin at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews

Red Corner

Anthony Rocco Martin

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1522

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Anthony Rocco Martin

oldest →

vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Sep 17

vs Keita Nakamura · Apr 18

KOvs Ryan LaFlare · Oct 18

vs Sergio Moraes · Mar 19

vs Neil Magny · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricAnthony Rocco Martin

3.34

Strikes / min

2.68

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

60%

Strike defense

58%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

0.71

64%

Takedown defense

68%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake MatthewsAnthony Rocco Martin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Matthews(10 fights)Anthony Rocco Martin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.9|Blue -29.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetAnthony Rocco Martin

By target zone

25% acc · 63%

Head

20% acc · 60%

67% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 4%

50% acc · 13%

Leg

90% acc · 36%

By position

31% acc · 96%

Distance

27% acc · 92%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Matthews rounds

even

Anthony Rocco Martin rounds

Round 1Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:25

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 2Anthony Rocco Martin edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Anthony Rocco Martin edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:14

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 75

Sig Strikes

25 / 86

27.3%

Sig Str %

32%

27 / 78

Total Strikes

33 / 94

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:39

Ctrl Time

1:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Rocco Martin	6 / 26	12 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Jake Matthews	14 / 31	17 / 34	0 / 0	1
2	Anthony Rocco Martin	15 / 51	17 / 53	0 / 0	0
2	Jake Matthews	9 / 36	9 / 36	0 / 0	0
3	Anthony Rocco Martin	4 / 9	4 / 9	0 / 0	1
3	Jake Matthews	1 / 8	1 / 8	0 / 1	0

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25

Anthony Rocco Martin

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13