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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Andrew Holbrook won · S-DEC R3

Elo1522

Elo1362

Jake MatthewsvsAndrew HolbrookUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · Saturday, November 26, 2016Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Andrew Holbrook won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJake Matthews: Well-roundedvsAndrew Holbrook: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Andrew Holbrook wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Matthews at -550 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrew Holbrook enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jake Matthews has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Andrew Holbrook (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews

Red Corner

Andrew Holbrook

Blue Corner

-550

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+425

(19%)

1522

Elo

1362

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Andrew HolbrookL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ramsey Nijem · Jul 15

KOvs Joaquim Silva · Jul 16

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Apr 17

KOvs Thibault Gouti · Sep 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricAndrew Holbrook

3.34

Strikes / min

2.20

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

60%

Strike defense

54%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

0.85

64%

Takedown defense

10%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

2.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap-0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake MatthewsAndrew Holbrook

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Matthews(10 fights)Andrew Holbrook(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +160.7|Blue -160.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetAndrew Holbrook

By target zone

28% acc · 64%

Head

44% acc · 53%

60% acc · 27%

Body

85% acc · 37%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

75% acc · 10%

By position

35% acc · 77%

Distance

39% acc · 40%

44% acc · 18%

Clinch

79% acc · 50%

25% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Matthews rounds

even

Andrew Holbrook rounds

Round 1Andrew Holbrook edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:24

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:07Control

Round 2Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control2:24

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 3Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:31

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 62

Sig Strikes

30 / 53

35%

Sig Str %

56.3%

29 / 70

Total Strikes

80 / 106

3 / 3

TDs

2 / 2

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

5:19

Ctrl Time

2:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andrew Holbrook	12 / 18	36 / 44	2 / 2	1
1	Jake Matthews	10 / 21	10 / 21	0 / 0	0
2	Andrew Holbrook	7 / 13	12 / 18	0 / 0	2
2	Jake Matthews	7 / 19	11 / 24	2 / 2	0
3	Andrew Holbrook	11 / 22	32 / 44	0 / 0	0
3	Jake Matthews	5 / 22	8 / 25	1 / 1	0

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25

Andrew Holbrook

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5