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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jake Matthews won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1522

Elo1356

Jake MatthewsvsAkbarh ArreolaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · Saturday, November 14, 2015Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Jake Matthews won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jake Matthews wins(68.4%)

Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Matthews at -1000 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Akbarh Arreola threatens submissions; Jake Matthews has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Jake Matthews has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Akbarh Arreola (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jake Matthews

Red Corner

Akbarh Arreola

Blue Corner

-1000

(91%)

Vegas Odds

+650

(13%)

1522

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Matthews

oldest →

vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25

SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25

SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25

DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26

latest

Akbarh Arreola

oldest →

DECvs Tiago Trator · Jul 14

SUBvs Yves Edwards · Nov 14

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Mar 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake MatthewsMetricAkbarh Arreola

3.34

Strikes / min

2.32

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

4.01

60%

Strike defense

56%

1.44

TDs / 15 min

1.07

64%

Takedown defense

33%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 2.41 — meaningful gap-1.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake MatthewsAkbarh Arreola

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Matthews(10 fights)Akbarh Arreola(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +166.7|Blue -166.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake MatthewsTargetAkbarh Arreola

By target zone

61% acc · 87%

Head

52% acc · 81%

80% acc · 6%

Body

25% acc · 5%

80% acc · 6%

Leg

75% acc · 14%

By position

42% acc · 13%

Distance

43% acc · 43%

75% acc · 5%

Clinch

0% acc

68% acc · 82%

Ground

63% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Matthews rounds

even

Akbarh Arreola rounds

Round 1Akbarh Arreola edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:59

Knockdowns0

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:59Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Jake Matthews edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns1

Control4:40

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 98

Sig Strikes

21 / 41

62.5%

Sig Str %

74%

96 / 136

Total Strikes

33 / 55

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:39

Ctrl Time

1:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Akbarh Arreola	19 / 39	20 / 40	0 / 0
1	Jake Matthews	21 / 48	24 / 54	0 / 2
2	Akbarh Arreola	2 / 2	13 / 15	0 / 0
2	Jake Matthews	41 / 50	72 / 82	1 / 1

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights25

Akbarh Arreola

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4