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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joe Duffy won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1354
Elo1386
Joe Duffy

Jake LindseyvsJoe DuffyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · Saturday, March 14, 2015Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Joe Duffy won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:47

Model Prediction: Joe Duffy wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Joe Duffy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Duffy at -710 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joe Duffy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Joe Duffy threatens submissions; Jake Lindsey has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jake Lindsey (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jake Lindsey
Red Corner
VS
Joe Duffy
Blue Corner
+575
(15%)
Vegas Odds
-710
(88%)
1354
Elo
1386
40
Age
38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake LindseyL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Jon Tuck · Jun 14
L
SUBvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Oct 14
latest
Joe DuffyL3 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mitch Clarke · Jul 16
W
vs Reza Madadi · Mar 17
L
KOvs James Vick · Nov 17
L
vs Marc Diakiese · Mar 19
L
SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake LindseyMetricJoe Duffy
3.44
Strikes / min
2.68
4.01
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
46%
Strike defense
54%
0.65
TDs / 15 min
0.96
50%
Takedown defense
64%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.57evenly matched on net striking-1.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1463 vs 1500Strikes36.5 vs —Takedowns0.5 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Jake LindseyJoe Duffy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Jake Lindsey(3 fights)Joe Duffy(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -32.1|Blue +32.1
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -48.3|Blue +48.3
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake LindseyTargetJoe Duffy

By target zone

2
12% acc · 33%
Head
11
31% acc · 73%
0
0% acc
Body
3
75% acc · 20%
4
80% acc · 67%
Leg
1
100% acc · 7%

By position

6
26% acc · 100%
Distance
14
37% acc · 93%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
1
50% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jake Lindsey rounds
0
even
1
Joe Duffy rounds
Round 1Joe Duffy edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
6 / 23
Sig Strikes
15 / 40
26%
Sig Str %
37%
6 / 23
Total Strikes
15 / 40
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Joe Duffy15 / 4015 / 400 / 00
1Jake Lindsey6 / 236 / 230 / 00

Jake Lindsey

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach—
Fights3

Joe Duffy

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8