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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jake Hadley won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1496

Elo1491

Jake HadleyvsMalcolm GordonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Saturday, March 18, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Jake Hadley won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:01

Model Prediction: Jake Hadley wins(69.7%)

Actual result: Jake Hadley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Hadley at -530 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Hadley has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jake Hadley has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Malcolm Gordon (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Jake Hadley

Red Corner

Malcolm Gordon

Blue Corner

-530

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+360

(22%)

1496

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Hadley

oldest →

SUBvs Carlos Candelario · Nov 22

vs Cody Durden · Aug 23

vs Charles Johnson · May 24

vs Caolan Loughran · Jul 24

vs Cameron Smotherman · Oct 24

latest

Malcolm GordonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Su Mudaerji · Nov 20

vs Francisco Figueiredo · Jul 21

KOvs Denys Bondar · Feb 22

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 22

SUBvs Jimmy Flick · Jan 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake HadleyMetricMalcolm Gordon

3.80

Strikes / min

2.50

4.16

Strikes absorbed / min

2.00

61%

Strike defense

43%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

1.72

54%

Takedown defense

26%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake HadleyMalcolm Gordon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Hadley(7 fights)Malcolm Gordon(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.8|Blue -4.8

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake HadleyTargetMalcolm Gordon

By target zone

39% acc · 70%

Head

8% acc · 33%

100% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 67%

By position

33% acc · 50%

Distance

20% acc · 100%

Clinch

83% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Hadley rounds

even

Malcolm Gordon rounds

Round 1Jake Hadley edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 21

Sig Strikes

3 / 15

47%

Sig Str %

20%

13 / 24

Total Strikes

3 / 15

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Malcolm Gordon	3 / 15	3 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Jake Hadley	10 / 21	13 / 24	0 / 0	0

Jake Hadley

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Malcolm Gordon

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7