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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Cameron Smotherman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1452

Jake HadleyvsCameron SmothermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Saturday, October 19, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cameron Smotherman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Cameron Smotherman wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Cameron Smotherman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cameron Smotherman at +425 American odds

+$425 profit

$525 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cameron Smotherman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Jake Hadley (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jake Hadley

Red Corner

Cameron Smotherman

Blue Corner

-575

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+425

(19%)

1496

Elo

1452

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Hadley

oldest →

SUBvs Carlos Candelario · Nov 22

KOvs Malcolm Gordon · Mar 23

vs Cody Durden · Aug 23

vs Charles Johnson · May 24

vs Caolan Loughran · Jul 24

latest

Cameron SmothermanL3 streak

oldest →

vs Serhiy Sidey · May 25

vs Ricky Simon · Jun 25

KOvs Kai Asakura · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake HadleyMetricCameron Smotherman

3.80

Strikes / min

4.07

4.16

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

61%

Strike defense

58%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

0.00

54%

Takedown defense

62%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking+0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake HadleyCameron Smotherman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Hadley(7 fights)Cameron Smotherman(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +44.2|Blue -44.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake HadleyTargetCameron Smotherman

By target zone

23% acc · 47%

Head

24% acc · 45%

71% acc · 28%

Body

67% acc · 50%

88% acc · 25%

Leg

83% acc · 5%

By position

36% acc · 98%

Distance

37% acc · 100%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Hadley rounds

even

Cameron Smotherman rounds

Round 1Cameron Smotherman edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control1:07

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Cameron Smotherman edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:46

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 165

Sig Strikes

96 / 259

36%

Sig Str %

37%

70 / 176

Total Strikes

97 / 260

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:53

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cameron Smotherman	37 / 79	37 / 79	0 / 0
1	Jake Hadley	24 / 58	24 / 58	0 / 0
2	Cameron Smotherman	25 / 75	26 / 76	0 / 0
2	Jake Hadley	18 / 57	27 / 67	1 / 1
3	Cameron Smotherman	34 / 105	34 / 105	0 / 0
3	Jake Hadley	18 / 50	19 / 51	0 / 1

Jake Hadley

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Cameron Smotherman

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4