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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Allan Nascimento won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1523

Jake HadleyvsAllan NascimentoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · Saturday, May 14, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Allan Nascimento won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Allan Nascimento wins(53.6%)

Actual result: Allan Nascimento wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Allan Nascimento at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Hadley has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jake Hadley (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jake Hadley

Red Corner

Allan Nascimento

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1496

Elo

1523

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake Hadley

oldest →

KOvs Malcolm Gordon · Mar 23

vs Cody Durden · Aug 23

vs Charles Johnson · May 24

vs Caolan Loughran · Jul 24

vs Cameron Smotherman · Oct 24

latest

Allan Nascimento

oldest →

vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Oct 21

SUBvs Carlos Hernandez · Jan 23

vs Jafel Filho · May 25

SUBvs Cody Durden · Nov 25

DECvs Mitch Raposo · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake HadleyMetricAllan Nascimento

3.80

Strikes / min

3.06

4.16

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

61%

Strike defense

52%

0.33

TDs / 15 min

1.26

54%

Takedown defense

37%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking+0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake HadleyAllan Nascimento

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Hadley(7 fights)Allan Nascimento(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.5|Blue +27.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake HadleyTargetAllan Nascimento

By target zone

20% acc · 63%

Head

22% acc · 37%

75% acc · 38%

Body

50% acc · 42%

Leg

100% acc · 21%

By position

15% acc · 38%

Distance

37% acc · 53%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

50% acc · 50%

Ground

35% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Hadley rounds

even

Allan Nascimento rounds

Round 1Allan Nascimento edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control1:23

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:59Control

Round 2Allan Nascimento edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:25

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:04Control

Round 3Allan Nascimento edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control2:02

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 29

Sig Strikes

19 / 52

30.3%

Sig Str %

36%

26 / 47

Total Strikes

36 / 69

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 4

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:50

Ctrl Time

9:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Allan Nascimento	4 / 11	14 / 21	1 / 1	0
1	Jake Hadley	3 / 14	11 / 22	0 / 0	0
2	Allan Nascimento	9 / 21	14 / 26	1 / 1	0
2	Jake Hadley	2 / 5	9 / 12	0 / 0	0
3	Allan Nascimento	6 / 20	8 / 22	0 / 2	0
3	Jake Hadley	3 / 10	6 / 13	0 / 0	1

Jake Hadley

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7

Allan Nascimento

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6