← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

5 Rounds

Stephen Thompson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1367

Elo1482

Jake EllenbergervsStephen ThompsonUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · Sunday, July 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Stephen Thompson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:29

Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsStephen Thompson: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Stephen Thompson wins(78.2%)

Actual result: Stephen Thompson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stephen Thompson at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stephen Thompson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jake Ellenberger has lost 70% of fights by KO.
Jake Ellenberger has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stephen Thompson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Ellenberger

Red Corner

Stephen Thompson

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-245

(71%)

1367

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake EllenbergerL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16

KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18

latest

Stephen ThompsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake EllenbergerMetricStephen Thompson

2.47

Strikes / min

4.05

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

60%

Strike defense

54%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

0.23

86%

Takedown defense

63%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake EllenbergerStephen Thompson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -115.3|Blue +115.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake EllenbergerTargetStephen Thompson

By target zone

33% acc · 80%

Head

59% acc · 85%

100% acc · 20%

Body

40% acc · 10%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

14% acc · 20%

Distance

55% acc · 60%

57% acc · 80%

Clinch

33% acc · 5%

Ground

70% acc · 35%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Ellenberger rounds

even

Stephen Thompson rounds

Round 1Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:56Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 14

Sig Strikes

20 / 35

35%

Sig Str %

57%

14 / 23

Total Strikes

29 / 47

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

1:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Stephen Thompson	20 / 35	29 / 47	1 / 3	0
1	Jake Ellenberger	5 / 14	14 / 23	0 / 1	0

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights19

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21