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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Ellenberger won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1367

Elo1490

Jake EllenbergervsSean PiersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · Saturday, April 30, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Jake Ellenberger won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:42

Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsSean Pierson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Sean Pierson wins(65.7%)

Actual result: Jake Ellenberger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Pierson at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Sean Pierson enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jake Ellenberger is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Sean Pierson has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Jake Ellenberger has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sean Pierson (53.5%).
Sean Pierson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Ellenberger

Red Corner

Sean Pierson

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1367

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake EllenbergerL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16

KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18

latest

Sean PiersonW3 streak

oldest →

vs Matthew Riddle · Dec 10

vs Dong Hyun Kim · Dec 11

vs Jake Hecht · Jun 12

vs Lance Benoist · Sep 12

vs Kenny Robertson · Jun 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake EllenbergerMetricSean Pierson

2.47

Strikes / min

3.84

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

60%

Strike defense

64%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

0.39

86%

Takedown defense

66%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake EllenbergerSean Pierson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Sean Pierson(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -123.0|Blue +123.0

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake EllenbergerTargetSean Pierson

By target zone

46% acc · 67%

Head

23% acc · 100%

33% acc · 11%

Body

67% acc · 22%

Leg

0% acc

By position

44% acc · 78%

Distance

21% acc · 100%

50% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Ellenberger rounds

even

Sean Pierson rounds

Round 1Jake Ellenberger edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 19

Sig Strikes

3 / 14

47%

Sig Str %

21%

9 / 19

Total Strikes

3 / 14

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sean Pierson	3 / 14	3 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Jake Ellenberger	9 / 19	9 / 19	1 / 1	0

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights19

Sean Pierson

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6