Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Ellenberger won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1367

Elo1363

Jake EllenbergervsNate MarquardtUFC Prediction Result

UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · Saturday, March 16, 2013Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Jake Ellenberger won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:00

Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsNate Marquardt: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Nate Marquardt wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Jake Ellenberger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nate Marquardt at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Nate Marquardt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nate Marquardt is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Jake Ellenberger has lost 70% of fights by KO.
Jake Ellenberger has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Ellenberger

Red Corner

Nate Marquardt

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1367

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake EllenbergerL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16

KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18

latest

Nate MarquardtL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16

KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16

vs Sam Alvey · Jan 17

vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17

vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake EllenbergerMetricNate Marquardt

2.47

Strikes / min

2.71

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

2.32

60%

Strike defense

55%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

1.87

86%

Takedown defense

70%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake EllenbergerNate Marquardt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Nate Marquardt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.6|Blue -4.6

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -566.0|Blue +566.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake EllenbergerTargetNate Marquardt

By target zone

40% acc · 62%

Head

18% acc · 15%

100% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 8%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

91% acc · 77%

By position

52% acc · 85%

Distance

57% acc · 100%

Clinch

50% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Ellenberger rounds

even

Nate Marquardt rounds

Round 1Jake Ellenberger edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 25

Sig Strikes

13 / 23

52%

Sig Str %

56%

13 / 25

Total Strikes

13 / 23

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nate Marquardt	13 / 23	13 / 23	0 / 0	0
1	Jake Ellenberger	13 / 25	13 / 25	0 / 0	0

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights19

Nate Marquardt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14