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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Perry won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1367

Elo1399

Jake EllenbergervsMike PerryUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Saturday, April 22, 2017Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Mike Perry won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:05

Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsMike Perry: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Mike Perry wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Mike Perry wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Perry at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mike Perry is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Jake Ellenberger has lost 70% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Ellenberger

Red Corner

Mike Perry

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1367

Elo

1399

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake EllenbergerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tarec Saffiedine · Jan 16

KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18

latest

Mike PerryL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Vincente Luque · Aug 19

KOvs Geoff Neal · Dec 19

vs Mickey Gall · Jun 20

vs Tim Means · Nov 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake EllenbergerMetricMike Perry

2.47

Strikes / min

4.32

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

5.16

60%

Strike defense

52%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

0.81

86%

Takedown defense

78%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake EllenbergerMike Perry

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Mike Perry(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -31.6|Blue +31.6

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake EllenbergerTargetMike Perry

By target zone

37% acc · 76%

Head

31% acc · 38%

67% acc · 24%

Body

40% acc · 15%

Leg

92% acc · 46%

By position

37% acc · 76%

Distance

47% acc · 92%

67% acc · 24%

Clinch

67% acc · 8%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Ellenberger rounds

even

Mike Perry rounds

Round 1Mike Perry edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:28

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Mike Perry edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns0

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 41

Sig Strikes

26 / 55

42.5%

Sig Str %

48%

20 / 44

Total Strikes

28 / 57

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mike Perry	22 / 47	24 / 49	0 / 0
1	Jake Ellenberger	12 / 30	15 / 33	1 / 4
2	Mike Perry	4 / 8	4 / 8	0 / 0
2	Jake Ellenberger	5 / 11	5 / 11	0 / 0

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights19

Mike Perry

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15