← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

5 Rounds

Martin Kampmann won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1367

Elo1352

Jake EllenbergervsMartin KampmannUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · Friday, June 1, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Martin Kampmann won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:40

Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsMartin Kampmann: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jake Ellenberger wins(55.2%)

Actual result: Martin Kampmann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Ellenberger at -178 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jake Ellenberger is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Martin Kampmann has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Ellenberger

Red Corner

Martin Kampmann

Blue Corner

-178

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+167

(37%)

1367

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake EllenbergerL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16

KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18

latest

Martin KampmannL2 streak

oldest →

vs Diego Sanchez · Mar 11

vs Rick Story · Nov 11

SUBvs Thiago Alves · Mar 12

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Nov 12

KOvs Carlos Condit · Aug 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake EllenbergerMetricMartin Kampmann

2.47

Strikes / min

3.22

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.28

60%

Strike defense

62%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

1.86

86%

Takedown defense

78%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake EllenbergerMartin Kampmann

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Martin Kampmann(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.8|Blue -14.8

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +16.0|Blue -16.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake EllenbergerTargetMartin Kampmann

By target zone

33% acc · 79%

Head

40% acc · 77%

100% acc · 11%

Body

50% acc · 23%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 68%

Distance

30% acc · 46%

100% acc · 21%

Clinch

67% acc · 46%

20% acc · 11%

Ground

50% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Ellenberger rounds

even

Martin Kampmann rounds

Round 1Jake Ellenberger edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control4:05

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Martin Kampmann edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 50

Sig Strikes

13 / 31

36%

Sig Str %

39%

27 / 64

Total Strikes

16 / 34

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:07

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Martin Kampmann	3 / 9	6 / 12	0 / 1
1	Jake Ellenberger	6 / 19	14 / 33	0 / 0
2	Martin Kampmann	10 / 22	10 / 22	0 / 0
2	Jake Ellenberger	13 / 31	13 / 31	0 / 0

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights19

Martin Kampmann

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8