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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kelvin Gastelum won · SUB R1

Elo1367

Elo1492

Jake EllenbergervsKelvin GastelumUFC Prediction Result

UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt · Saturday, November 15, 2014Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Kelvin Gastelum won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:46

Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum wins(80.9%)

Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kelvin Gastelum at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jake Ellenberger has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jake Ellenberger

Red Corner

Kelvin Gastelum

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1367

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake EllenbergerL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16

KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18

latest

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake EllenbergerMetricKelvin Gastelum

2.47

Strikes / min

3.65

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

60%

Strike defense

57%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

1.04

86%

Takedown defense

60%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake EllenbergerKelvin Gastelum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -124.4|Blue +124.4

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake EllenbergerTargetKelvin Gastelum

By target zone

35% acc · 70%

Head

41% acc · 81%

75% acc · 30%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

50% acc · 6%

By position

38% acc · 80%

Distance

38% acc · 63%

67% acc · 20%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

Ground

63% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Ellenberger rounds

even

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:03

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 24

Sig Strikes

16 / 36

41%

Sig Str %

44%

12 / 27

Total Strikes

29 / 49

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

1:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kelvin Gastelum	16 / 36	29 / 49	1 / 2	1
1	Jake Ellenberger	10 / 24	12 / 27	1 / 1	0

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights19

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24