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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Ellenberger won · SUB R2

Elo1367

Elo1354

Jake EllenbergervsJosh KoscheckUFC Prediction Result

UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · Saturday, February 28, 2015Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Jake Ellenberger won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:20

Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsJosh Koscheck: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jake Ellenberger wins(64.4%)

Actual result: Jake Ellenberger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Ellenberger at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Josh Koscheck enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jake Ellenberger has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Ellenberger

Red Corner

Josh Koscheck

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1367

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake EllenbergerL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16

KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18

latest

Josh KoscheckL4 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Pierce · Feb 12

vs Johny Hendricks · May 12

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Feb 13

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Nov 13

SUBvs Erick Silva · Mar 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake EllenbergerMetricJosh Koscheck

2.47

Strikes / min

1.79

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

2.27

60%

Strike defense

63%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

2.46

86%

Takedown defense

64%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake EllenbergerJosh Koscheck

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Josh Koscheck(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.8|Blue -12.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -364.0|Blue +364.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake EllenbergerTargetJosh Koscheck

By target zone

27% acc · 93%

Head

14% acc · 71%

100% acc · 7%

Body

40% acc · 29%

Leg

By position

26% acc · 87%

Distance

13% acc · 71%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Ellenberger rounds

even

Josh Koscheck rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:21

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:36Control

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 52

Sig Strikes

7 / 40

27.5%

Sig Str %

20.5%

26 / 64

Total Strikes

21 / 55

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

3:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josh Koscheck	3 / 27	12 / 37	1 / 3	0
1	Jake Ellenberger	10 / 31	17 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Josh Koscheck	4 / 13	9 / 18	0 / 3	0
2	Jake Ellenberger	5 / 21	9 / 26	0 / 0	1

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights19

Josh Koscheck

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9