Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Ellenberger won · U-DEC R3

Elo1367

Elo1352

Jake EllenbergervsJay HieronUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · Friday, October 5, 2012Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Official fight result

Jake Ellenberger won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsJay Hieron: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jake Ellenberger wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Jake Ellenberger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Ellenberger at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jake Ellenberger is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Jay Hieron has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Jake Ellenberger has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jay Hieron has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Ellenberger

Red Corner

Jay Hieron

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1367

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake EllenbergerL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16

KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18

latest

Jay Hieron

oldest →

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Feb 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake EllenbergerMetricJay Hieron

2.47

Strikes / min

1.66

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

1.89

60%

Strike defense

61%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

4.05

86%

Takedown defense

66%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake EllenbergerJay Hieron

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Jay Hieron(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.2|Blue -15.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -48.4|Blue +48.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake EllenbergerTargetJay Hieron

By target zone

25% acc · 72%

Head

16% acc · 53%

33% acc · 4%

Body

60% acc · 9%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

80% acc · 38%

By position

26% acc · 76%

Distance

25% acc · 97%

33% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

83% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Ellenberger rounds

even

Jay Hieron rounds

Round 1Jay Hieron edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:04

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jake Ellenberger edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:57

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:03

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 81

Sig Strikes

32 / 127

29%

Sig Str %

26%

27 / 83

Total Strikes

43 / 139

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

66.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jay Hieron	11 / 36	11 / 36	0 / 1
1	Jake Ellenberger	5 / 24	5 / 24	0 / 0
2	Jay Hieron	12 / 37	23 / 49	0 / 1
2	Jake Ellenberger	14 / 32	16 / 34	1 / 1
3	Jay Hieron	9 / 54	9 / 54	0 / 0
3	Jake Ellenberger	6 / 25	6 / 25	1 / 3

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights19

Jay Hieron

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights2