Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Ellenberger won · S-DEC R3

Elo1367

Elo1351

Jake EllenbergervsCarlos Eduardo RochaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · Saturday, February 5, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jake Ellenberger won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jake Ellenberger wins(80.4%)

Actual result: Jake Ellenberger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Ellenberger at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jake Ellenberger has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Ellenberger

Red Corner

Carlos Eduardo Rocha

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1367

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake EllenbergerL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16

KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18

latest

Carlos Eduardo Rocha

oldest →

SUBvs Kris McCray · Nov 10

vs Mike Pierce · Jun 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake EllenbergerMetricCarlos Eduardo Rocha

2.47

Strikes / min

1.24

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

1.85

60%

Strike defense

55%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

0.00

86%

Takedown defense

52%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake EllenbergerCarlos Eduardo Rocha

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Carlos Eduardo Rocha(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.7|Blue -15.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red +104.0|Blue -104.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake EllenbergerTargetCarlos Eduardo Rocha

By target zone

26% acc · 64%

Head

15% acc · 38%

60% acc · 24%

Body

40% acc · 10%

60% acc · 12%

Leg

65% acc · 52%

By position

30% acc · 68%

Distance

27% acc · 90%

46% acc · 24%

Clinch

25% acc · 5%

33% acc · 8%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Ellenberger rounds

even

Carlos Eduardo Rocha rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:22

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:35Control

Round 2Jake Ellenberger edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:32

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:50

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 76

Sig Strikes

21 / 76

35.3%

Sig Str %

26.7%

41 / 98

Total Strikes

32 / 88

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 5

66.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:44

Ctrl Time

3:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carlos Eduardo Rocha	3 / 10	9 / 17	0 / 3	2
1	Jake Ellenberger	5 / 11	13 / 21	1 / 2	0
2	Carlos Eduardo Rocha	4 / 29	7 / 32	0 / 1	0
2	Jake Ellenberger	10 / 33	13 / 39	1 / 1	0
3	Carlos Eduardo Rocha	14 / 37	16 / 39	0 / 1	0
3	Jake Ellenberger	10 / 32	15 / 38	1 / 2	0

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights19

Carlos Eduardo Rocha

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3