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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Bryan Barberena won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1367

Elo1491

Jake EllenbergervsBryan BarberenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · Saturday, August 25, 2018Lincoln, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

Bryan Barberena won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:26

Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsBryan Barberena: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Bryan Barberena wins(76.0%)

Actual result: Bryan Barberena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryan Barberena at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jake Ellenberger has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jake Ellenberger has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryan Barberena (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jake Ellenberger

Red Corner

Bryan Barberena

Blue Corner

+335

(23%)

Vegas Odds

-420

(81%)

1367

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake EllenbergerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tarec Saffiedine · Jan 16

KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16

KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18

latest

Bryan BarberenaL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 22

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Dec 22

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 23

vs Makhmud Muradov · Jul 23

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake EllenbergerMetricBryan Barberena

2.47

Strikes / min

5.35

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

60%

Strike defense

44%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

0.13

86%

Takedown defense

50%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake EllenbergerBryan Barberena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Bryan Barberena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -124.3|Blue +124.3

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -272.0|Blue +272.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake EllenbergerTargetBryan Barberena

By target zone

75% acc · 50%

Head

52% acc · 89%

100% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 5%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

91% acc · 83%

Distance

33% acc · 37%

67% acc · 17%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

Ground

83% acc · 53%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Ellenberger rounds

even

Bryan Barberena rounds

Round 1Bryan Barberena edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:22

Knockdowns0

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 14

Sig Strikes

19 / 35

85%

Sig Str %

54%

12 / 14

Total Strikes

31 / 47

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bryan Barberena	19 / 35	31 / 47	0 / 0	0
1	Jake Ellenberger	12 / 14	12 / 14	0 / 0	0

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights19

Bryan Barberena

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights19