← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ben Saunders won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1367

Elo1379

Jake EllenbergervsBen SaundersUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · Friday, June 1, 2018Utica, New York, USA

Official fight result

Ben Saunders won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:56

Style matchupJake Ellenberger: WrestlervsBen Saunders: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ben Saunders wins(65.9%)

Actual result: Ben Saunders wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ben Saunders at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ben Saunders enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jake Ellenberger is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Ben Saunders has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Jake Ellenberger has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Ben Saunders has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Ellenberger

Red Corner

Ben Saunders

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1367

Elo

1379

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'2"

180.34 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake EllenbergerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tarec Saffiedine · Jan 16

KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16

KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18

latest

Ben SaundersL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alan Jouban · Feb 18

SUBvs Sergio Moraes · Sep 18

KOvs Lyman Good · Nov 18

KOvs Takashi Sato · Apr 19

KOvs Matt Brown · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake EllenbergerMetricBen Saunders

2.47

Strikes / min

3.23

2.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.58

60%

Strike defense

51%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

0.20

86%

Takedown defense

66%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.36evenly matched on net striking-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake EllenbergerBen Saunders

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)Ben Saunders(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.6|Blue +11.6

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +308.0|Blue -308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake EllenbergerTargetBen Saunders

By target zone

50% acc · 80%

Head

41% acc · 70%

100% acc · 20%

Body

75% acc · 30%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 20%

Distance

13% acc · 10%

57% acc · 80%

Clinch

70% acc · 70%

Ground

67% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Ellenberger rounds

even

Ben Saunders rounds

Round 1Ben Saunders edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:40

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 9

Sig Strikes

10 / 21

55%

Sig Str %

47%

7 / 12

Total Strikes

11 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ben Saunders	10 / 21	11 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Jake Ellenberger	5 / 9	7 / 12	0 / 0	0

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights19

Ben Saunders

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14