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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jake Collier won · U-DEC R3

Elo1474

Elo1363

Jake ColliervsMarcel FortunaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Saturday, November 11, 2017Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Jake Collier won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJake Collier: Pressure fightervsMarcel Fortuna: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Marcel Fortuna wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Jake Collier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcel Fortuna at -255 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Collier enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Marcel Fortuna has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jake Collier has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Collier

Red Corner

Marcel Fortuna

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-255

(72%)

1474

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake CollierL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22

vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22

KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22

vs Martin Buday · Apr 23

vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23

latest

Marcel Fortuna

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Hamilton · Feb 17

vs Jordan Johnson · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake CollierMetricMarcel Fortuna

5.80

Strikes / min

3.83

5.08

Strikes absorbed / min

4.52

50%

Strike defense

64%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.45

67%

Takedown defense

75%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap-0.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake CollierMarcel Fortuna

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Collier(10 fights)Marcel Fortuna(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +111.2|Blue -111.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +83.0|Blue -83.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake CollierTargetMarcel Fortuna

By target zone

28% acc · 59%

Head

40% acc · 83%

73% acc · 20%

Body

60% acc · 15%

91% acc · 21%

Leg

33% acc · 2%

By position

37% acc · 94%

Distance

41% acc · 92%

29% acc · 2%

Clinch

71% acc · 8%

80% acc · 4%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Collier rounds

even

Marcel Fortuna rounds

Round 1Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:04

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:57

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:10

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 247

Sig Strikes

59 / 140

37.3%

Sig Str %

41%

124 / 279

Total Strikes

65 / 146

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 9

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

1:11

Ctrl Time

1:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcel Fortuna	23 / 48	23 / 48	0 / 1	0
1	Jake Collier	29 / 75	39 / 86	0 / 1	0
2	Marcel Fortuna	13 / 37	19 / 43	1 / 3	1
2	Jake Collier	24 / 72	43 / 92	0 / 0	0
3	Marcel Fortuna	23 / 55	23 / 55	0 / 5	0
3	Jake Collier	41 / 100	42 / 101	0 / 1	0

Jake Collier

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights14

Marcel Fortuna

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3