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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Chris Barnett won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1474

Elo1483

Jake ColliervsChris BarnettUFC Prediction Result

UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Saturday, September 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chris Barnett won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:24

Style matchupJake Collier: Pressure fightervsChris Barnett: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Jake Collier wins(60.5%)

Actual result: Chris Barnett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Collier at -540 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Collier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chris Barnett enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jake Collier has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jake Collier has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Collier

Red Corner

Chris Barnett

Blue Corner

-540

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+420

(19%)

1474

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

5'9"

198.12 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake CollierL3 streak

oldest →

vs Carlos Felipe · Jun 21

SUBvs Chase Sherman · Jan 22

vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22

vs Martin Buday · Apr 23

vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23

latest

Chris BarnettL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ben Rothwell · May 21

KOvs Gian Villante · Nov 21

vs Martin Buday · Apr 22

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Oct 24

vs Hamdy Abdelwahab · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake CollierMetricChris Barnett

5.80

Strikes / min

3.36

5.08

Strikes absorbed / min

6.55

50%

Strike defense

36%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.00

67%

Takedown defense

35%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 3.91 — meaningful gap-3.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake CollierChris Barnett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Collier(10 fights)Chris Barnett(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.3|Blue +9.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake CollierTargetChris Barnett

By target zone

47% acc · 78%

Head

54% acc · 89%

83% acc · 20%

Body

25% acc · 2%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

40% acc · 55%

Distance

49% acc · 46%

81% acc · 25%

Clinch

20% acc · 2%

83% acc · 20%

Ground

67% acc · 52%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Collier rounds

even

Chris Barnett rounds

Round 1Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns1

Control1:26

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Chris Barnett edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:03Control

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 98

Sig Strikes

54 / 98

51.5%

Sig Str %

52.5%

57 / 107

Total Strikes

83 / 132

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:26

Ctrl Time

1:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Barnett	16 / 37	18 / 39	0 / 0	0
1	Jake Collier	42 / 81	48 / 90	1 / 1	1
2	Chris Barnett	38 / 61	65 / 93	0 / 0	0
2	Jake Collier	9 / 17	9 / 17	0 / 1	0

Jake Collier

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights14

Chris Barnett

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6