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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jake Collier won · SUB R1

Elo1474

Elo1459

Jake ColliervsChase ShermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Saturday, January 15, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jake Collier won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:26

Style matchupJake Collier: Pressure fightervsChase Sherman: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jake Collier wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Jake Collier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jake Collier at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Collier enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jake Collier

Red Corner

Chase Sherman

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1474

Elo

1459

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jake CollierL5 streak

oldest →

vs Carlos Felipe · Jun 21

vs Andrei Arlovski · Apr 22

KOvs Chris Barnett · Sep 22

vs Martin Buday · Apr 23

vs Mohammed Usman · Sep 23

latest

Chase ShermanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Parker Porter · Aug 21

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Apr 22

KOvs Jared Vanderaa · Jul 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Nov 22

vs Karl Williams · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jake CollierMetricChase Sherman

5.80

Strikes / min

6.04

5.08

Strikes absorbed / min

6.65

50%

Strike defense

52%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.09

67%

Takedown defense

74%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.72Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jake CollierChase Sherman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jake Collier(10 fights)Chase Sherman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.0|Blue -15.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jake CollierTargetChase Sherman

By target zone

39% acc · 90%

Head

53% acc · 80%

100% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 10%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

33% acc · 60%

Distance

59% acc · 100%

Clinch

62% acc · 40%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jake Collier rounds

even

Chase Sherman rounds

Round 1Jake Collier edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:07

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 49

Sig Strikes

10 / 17

40%

Sig Str %

58%

20 / 50

Total Strikes

10 / 17

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:07

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chase Sherman	10 / 17	10 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Jake Collier	20 / 49	20 / 50	1 / 1	1

Jake Collier

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights14

Chase Sherman

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15