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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Jairzinho Rozenstruik won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1502

Elo1482

Jairzinho RozenstruikvsShamil GazievUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Saturday, March 2, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jairzinho Rozenstruik won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 5:00

Style matchupJairzinho Rozenstruik: StrikervsShamil Gaziev: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Shamil Gaziev wins(55.2%)

Actual result: Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shamil Gaziev at -180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a KO finisher (89% of wins). Shamil Gaziev has lost 100% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Red Corner

Shamil Gaziev

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-180

(64%)

1502

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Jun 22

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Dec 22

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · May 23

vs Tai Tuivasa · Aug 24

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Feb 25

latest

Shamil GazievL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Martin Buday · Dec 23

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Aug 24

KOvs Thomas Petersen · Feb 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Nov 25

KOvs Brando Pericic · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jairzinho RozenstruikMetricShamil Gaziev

3.48

Strikes / min

2.94

2.63

Strikes absorbed / min

4.92

52%

Strike defense

45%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.06

72%

Takedown defense

83%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85Δ 2.83 — meaningful gap-1.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jairzinho RozenstruikShamil Gaziev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jairzinho Rozenstruik(10 fights)Shamil Gaziev(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.8|Blue -20.8

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +217.0|Blue -217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jairzinho RozenstruikTargetShamil Gaziev

By target zone

49% acc · 61%

Head

27% acc · 73%

81% acc · 24%

Body

63% acc · 23%

95% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

123

59% acc · 97%

Distance

28% acc · 77%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

67% acc · 18%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik rounds

even

Shamil Gaziev rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:46Control

Round 2Jairzinho Rozenstruik edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:04Control

Round 3Jairzinho Rozenstruik edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Jairzinho Rozenstruik edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:01

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

127 / 215

Sig Strikes

22 / 68

54.8%

Sig Str %

30.5%

140 / 230

Total Strikes

27 / 75

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 7

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

4:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shamil Gaziev	8 / 18	12 / 23	1 / 3
1	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	13 / 31	15 / 34	0 / 0
2	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	19 / 41	26 / 48	0 / 0
2	Shamil Gaziev	7 / 19	7 / 19	0 / 2
3	Shamil Gaziev	5 / 19	5 / 19	0 / 0
3	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	47 / 75	47 / 75	0 / 0
4	Shamil Gaziev	2 / 12	3 / 14	0 / 2
4	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	48 / 68	52 / 73	0 / 1

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15

Shamil Gaziev

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5