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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Ciryl Gane won · U-DEC

Elo1502

Elo1531

Jairzinho RozenstruikvsCiryl GaneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · Saturday, February 27, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ciryl Gane won

U-DEC

Style matchupJairzinho Rozenstruik: StrikervsCiryl Gane: Elusive striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Ciryl Gane wins(76.4%)

Actual result: Ciryl Gane wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ciryl Gane at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Red Corner

Ciryl Gane

Blue Corner

+185

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-225

(69%)

1502

Elo

1531

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

oldest →

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Dec 22

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · May 23

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Mar 24

vs Tai Tuivasa · Aug 24

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Feb 25

latest

Ciryl Gane

oldest →

SUBvs Jon Jones · Mar 23

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Sep 23

vs Alexander Volkov · Dec 24

vs Tom Aspinall · Oct 25

KOvs Alex Pereira · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jairzinho RozenstruikMetricCiryl Gane

3.48

Strikes / min

5.29

2.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.33

52%

Strike defense

60%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.68

72%

Takedown defense

47%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap+2.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jairzinho RozenstruikCiryl Gane

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jairzinho Rozenstruik(10 fights)Ciryl Gane(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.9|Blue +28.9

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jairzinho RozenstruikTargetCiryl Gane

By target zone

20% acc · 33%

Head

40% acc · 32%

83% acc · 12%

Body

72% acc · 23%

79% acc · 55%

Leg

75% acc · 45%

By position

39% acc · 90%

Distance

57% acc · 96%

57% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik rounds

even

Ciryl Gane rounds

Round 1Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:24Control

Round 2Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 3Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 5Ciryl Gane edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 104

Sig Strikes

102 / 176

40.2%

Sig Str %

56.8%

49 / 111

Total Strikes

128 / 202

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 14

—

TD %

10.6%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ciryl Gane	10 / 18	16 / 24	1 / 3
1	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	8 / 18	10 / 20	0 / 0
2	Ciryl Gane	23 / 34	27 / 38	0 / 3
2	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	6 / 16	7 / 17	0 / 0
3	Ciryl Gane	29 / 42	29 / 42	0 / 2
3	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	13 / 34	13 / 34	0 / 0
4	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	10 / 24	10 / 24	0 / 0
4	Ciryl Gane	29 / 56	29 / 56	0 / 1
5	Ciryl Gane	11 / 26	27 / 42	1 / 5
5	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	5 / 12	9 / 16	0 / 0

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15

Ciryl Gane

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights13