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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jairzinho Rozenstruik won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1502

Elo1471

Jairzinho RozenstruikvsChris DaukausUFC Prediction Result

UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, December 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jairzinho Rozenstruik won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:23

Style matchupJairzinho Rozenstruik: StrikervsChris Daukaus: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Chris Daukaus wins(69.2%)

Actual result: Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Daukaus at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Daukaus enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a KO finisher (89% of wins). Chris Daukaus has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Chris Daukaus has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Red Corner

Chris Daukaus

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1502

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Jun 22

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · May 23

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Mar 24

vs Tai Tuivasa · Aug 24

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Feb 25

latest

Chris DaukausL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Feb 21

KOvs Shamil Abdurakhimov · Sep 21

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Dec 21

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 22

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jairzinho RozenstruikMetricChris Daukaus

3.48

Strikes / min

6.05

2.63

Strikes absorbed / min

4.64

52%

Strike defense

55%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

72%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+1.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jairzinho RozenstruikChris Daukaus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jairzinho Rozenstruik(10 fights)Chris Daukaus(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +31.6|Blue -31.6

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jairzinho RozenstruikTargetChris Daukaus

By target zone

57% acc · 100%

Head

100% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

By position

56% acc · 75%

Distance

100% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

75% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik rounds

even

Chris Daukaus rounds

Round 1Jairzinho Rozenstruik edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 21

Sig Strikes

1 / 1

57%

Sig Str %

100%

12 / 21

Total Strikes

1 / 1

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Daukaus	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0
1	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	12 / 21	12 / 21	0 / 0	0

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15

Chris Daukaus

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8