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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Rizvan Kuniev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1508

Elo1541

Jailton AlmeidavsRizvan KunievUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Saturday, February 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rizvan Kuniev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJailton Almeida: WrestlervsRizvan Kuniev: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rizvan Kuniev wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Rizvan Kuniev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rizvan Kuniev at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rizvan Kuniev has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jailton Almeida

Red Corner

Rizvan Kuniev

Blue Corner

-166

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1508

Elo

1541

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jailton Almeida

oldest →

vs Derrick Lewis · Nov 23

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 24

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Jun 24

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Jan 25

vs Alexander Volkov · Oct 25

latest

Rizvan Kuniev

oldest →

vs Curtis Blaydes · Jun 25

KOvs Tyrell Fortune · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jailton AlmeidaMetricRizvan Kuniev

2.23

Strikes / min

3.94

1.30

Strikes absorbed / min

2.33

43%

Strike defense

48%

5.64

TDs / 15 min

0.98

60%

Takedown defense

93%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.93evenly matched on net striking+1.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jailton AlmeidaRizvan Kuniev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jailton Almeida(10 fights)Rizvan Kuniev(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -32.6|Blue +32.6

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jailton AlmeidaTargetRizvan Kuniev

By target zone

34% acc · 55%

Head

40% acc · 72%

80% acc · 39%

Body

73% acc · 26%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

40% acc · 74%

Distance

34% acc · 51%

80% acc · 26%

Clinch

75% acc · 49%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jailton Almeida rounds

even

Rizvan Kuniev rounds

Round 1Rizvan Kuniev edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:11

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:11Control

Round 2Rizvan Kuniev edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:20Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:13

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 67

Sig Strikes

43 / 93

43.7%

Sig Str %

46.3%

50 / 92

Total Strikes

102 / 153

0 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:24

Ctrl Time

6:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rizvan Kuniev	12 / 24	33 / 45	0 / 0
1	Jailton Almeida	5 / 12	14 / 22	0 / 3
2	Rizvan Kuniev	15 / 35	30 / 50	0 / 0
2	Jailton Almeida	8 / 21	15 / 30	0 / 1
3	Rizvan Kuniev	16 / 34	39 / 58	0 / 0
3	Jailton Almeida	18 / 34	21 / 40	0 / 4

Jailton Almeida

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11

Rizvan Kuniev

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3