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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Jailton Almeida won · U-DEC R5
Elo1508
Jailton Almeida
Elo1481
Derrick Lewis

Jailton AlmeidavsDerrick LewisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Saturday, November 4, 2023Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Jailton Almeida won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jailton Almeida wins(90.3%)

Actual result: Jailton Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jailton Almeida at -485 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jailton Almeida
Red Corner
VS
Derrick Lewis
Blue Corner
-485
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+370
(21%)
1508
Elo
1481
35
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
200.66 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jailton AlmeidaL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 24
W
SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Jun 24
W
KOvs Serghei Spivac · Jan 25
L
vs Alexander Volkov · Oct 25
L
vs Rizvan Kuniev · Feb 26
latest
Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Jul 23
W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24
W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25
L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26
L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jailton AlmeidaMetricDerrick Lewis
2.23
Strikes / min
2.46
1.30
Strikes absorbed / min
2.57
43%
Strike defense
39%
5.64
TDs / 15 min
0.55
60%
Takedown defense
52%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.93Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap-0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1570 vs 1586Strikes2.5 vs 2.5Takedowns6.8 vs 0.6Sub Atts2.60 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.0
Jailton AlmeidaDerrick Lewis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701488150515231540← oldermost recent →
Jailton Almeida(10 fights)Derrick Lewis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +26.7|Blue -26.7
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Layoff
Red +77.0|Blue -77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jailton AlmeidaTargetDerrick Lewis

By target zone

32
67% acc · 84%
Head
17
52% acc · 85%
5
100% acc · 13%
Body
3
50% acc · 15%
1
33% acc · 3%
Leg
0

By position

5
71% acc · 13%
Distance
2
20% acc · 10%
3
38% acc · 8%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 5%
30
73% acc · 79%
Ground
17
61% acc · 85%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Jailton Almeida rounds
0
even
0
Derrick Lewis rounds
Round 1Jailton Almeida edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control4:36
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jailton Almeida edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control4:19
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jailton Almeida edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control3:57
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:33Control
Round 4Jailton Almeida edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control4:23
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Jailton Almeida edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns2
Control3:55
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
38 / 56
Sig Strikes
20 / 39
62.6%
Sig Str %
60.6%
120 / 153
Total Strikes
28 / 54
6 / 15
TDs
0 / 2
52.2%
TD %
0%
4
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
21:10
Ctrl Time
0:57

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Derrick Lewis6 / 117 / 140 / 00
1Jailton Almeida11 / 1516 / 211 / 22
2Derrick Lewis1 / 23 / 60 / 00
2Jailton Almeida6 / 816 / 181 / 12
3Derrick Lewis5 / 156 / 170 / 10
3Jailton Almeida19 / 2933 / 451 / 30
4Jailton Almeida2 / 228 / 371 / 20
4Derrick Lewis2 / 26 / 80 / 00
5Derrick Lewis6 / 96 / 90 / 10
5Jailton Almeida0 / 227 / 322 / 70

Jailton Almeida

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31