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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Jailton Almeida won · SUB R1

Elo1508

Elo1481

Jailton AlmeidavsAnton TurkaljUFC Prediction Result

UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Saturday, September 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jailton Almeida won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:27

Style matchupJailton Almeida: WrestlervsAnton Turkalj: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jailton Almeida wins(77.9%)

Actual result: Jailton Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jailton Almeida at -645 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anton Turkalj enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Anton Turkalj has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jailton Almeida has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jailton Almeida

Red Corner

Anton Turkalj

Blue Corner

-645

(87%)

Vegas Odds

+480

(17%)

1508

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jailton AlmeidaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 24

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Jun 24

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Jan 25

vs Alexander Volkov · Oct 25

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Feb 26

latest

Anton TurkaljL3 streak

oldest →

vs Vitor Petrino · Mar 23

KOvs Tyson Pedro · Sep 23

KOvs Ibo Aslan · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jailton AlmeidaMetricAnton Turkalj

2.23

Strikes / min

2.45

1.30

Strikes absorbed / min

3.42

43%

Strike defense

54%

5.64

TDs / 15 min

4.98

60%

Takedown defense

16%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.93Δ 1.90 — meaningful gap-0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jailton AlmeidaAnton Turkalj

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jailton Almeida(10 fights)Anton Turkalj(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.9|Blue -26.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jailton AlmeidaTargetAnton Turkalj

By target zone

77% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

0% acc

Distance

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

81% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jailton Almeida rounds

even

Anton Turkalj rounds

Round 1Jailton Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns3

Control4:14

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 24

Sig Strikes

1 / 1

70%

Sig Str %

100%

23 / 31

Total Strikes

19 / 22

3 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:14

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anton Turkalj	1 / 1	19 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Jailton Almeida	17 / 24	23 / 31	3 / 3	2

Jailton Almeida

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11

Anton Turkalj

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4