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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jailton Almeida won · SUB R1

Elo1508

Elo1506

Jailton AlmeidavsAlexandr RomanovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Saturday, June 1, 2024Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Jailton Almeida won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:27

Style matchupJailton Almeida: WrestlervsAlexandr Romanov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jailton Almeida wins(73.9%)

Actual result: Jailton Almeida wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jailton Almeida threatens submissions; Alexandr Romanov has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Alexandr Romanov has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jailton Almeida has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Alexandr Romanov (53.5%).
Jailton Almeida has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jailton Almeida

Red Corner

Alexandr Romanov

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1508

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jailton AlmeidaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Derrick Lewis · Nov 23

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 24

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Jan 25

vs Alexander Volkov · Oct 25

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Feb 26

latest

Alexandr RomanovW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chase Sherman · Apr 22

vs Marcin Tybura · Aug 22

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 23

vs Blagoy Ivanov · Jul 23

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jailton AlmeidaMetricAlexandr Romanov

2.23

Strikes / min

3.78

1.30

Strikes absorbed / min

2.13

43%

Strike defense

54%

5.64

TDs / 15 min

4.49

60%

Takedown defense

28%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.93evenly matched on net striking+1.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jailton AlmeidaAlexandr Romanov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jailton Almeida(10 fights)Alexandr Romanov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -252.0|Blue +252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jailton AlmeidaTargetAlexandr Romanov

By target zone

Head

50% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jailton Almeida rounds

even

Alexandr Romanov rounds

Round 1Jailton Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control2:07

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 2

Sig Strikes

1 / 1

50%

Sig Str %

100%

2 / 3

Total Strikes

1 / 1

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:07

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexandr Romanov	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0
1	Jailton Almeida	1 / 2	2 / 3	1 / 2	2

Jailton Almeida

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11

Alexandr Romanov

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10