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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jai Herbert won · U-DEC R3

Elo1512

Elo1496

Jai HerbertvsKyle NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Saturday, July 23, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Jai Herbert won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJai Herbert: StrikervsKyle Nelson: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Jai Herbert wins(50.9%)

Actual result: Jai Herbert wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jai Herbert at -285 American odds

+$35 profit

$135 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jai Herbert is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Kyle Nelson has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).
Jai Herbert has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jai Herbert

Red Corner

Kyle Nelson

Blue Corner

-285

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1512

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

5'11"

195.58 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jai Herbert

oldest →

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Mar 22

vs Fares Ziam · Jul 23

vs Rolando Bedoya · Aug 24

vs Chris Padilla · Mar 25

KOvs Mandel Nallo · Apr 26

latest

Kyle Nelson

oldest →

vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23

KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24

KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jai HerbertMetricKyle Nelson

3.19

Strikes / min

3.60

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

4.58

52%

Strike defense

53%

0.42

TDs / 15 min

1.18

66%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.15evenly matched on net striking-0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jai HerbertKyle Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jai Herbert(9 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.6|Blue -15.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -553.0|Blue +553.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jai HerbertTargetKyle Nelson

By target zone

37% acc · 44%

Head

44% acc · 37%

94% acc · 47%

Body

85% acc · 27%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 37%

By position

44% acc · 61%

Distance

60% acc · 68%

100% acc · 36%

Clinch

87% acc · 32%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jai Herbert rounds

even

Kyle Nelson rounds

Round 1Kyle Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:18

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 2Jai Herbert edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:11

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Round 3Jai Herbert edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control3:28

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 64

Sig Strikes

41 / 62

52.3%

Sig Str %

70.3%

84 / 116

Total Strikes

55 / 77

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 4

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:57

Ctrl Time

3:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kyle Nelson	19 / 27	21 / 30	0 / 2
1	Jai Herbert	7 / 19	17 / 29	0 / 0
2	Kyle Nelson	17 / 29	21 / 33	0 / 1
2	Jai Herbert	24 / 36	35 / 47	0 / 1
3	Kyle Nelson	5 / 6	13 / 14	0 / 1
3	Jai Herbert	5 / 9	32 / 40	0 / 0

Jai Herbert

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights8

Kyle Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11