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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Ilia Topuria won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1512

Elo1520

Jai HerbertvsIlia TopuriaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Saturday, March 19, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Ilia Topuria won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:07

Style matchupJai Herbert: StrikervsIlia Topuria: Submission grappler

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Ilia Topuria wins(82.3%)

Actual result: Ilia Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ilia Topuria at -600 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ilia Topuria has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ilia Topuria has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Jai Herbert has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jai Herbert

Red Corner

Ilia Topuria

Blue Corner

+435

(19%)

Vegas Odds

-600

(86%)

1512

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'7"

195.58 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jai Herbert

oldest →

vs Kyle Nelson · Jul 22

vs Fares Ziam · Jul 23

vs Rolando Bedoya · Aug 24

vs Chris Padilla · Mar 25

KOvs Mandel Nallo · Apr 26

latest

Ilia Topuria

oldest →

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24

KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 24

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jai HerbertMetricIlia Topuria

3.19

Strikes / min

4.81

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.83

52%

Strike defense

64%

0.42

TDs / 15 min

1.96

66%

Takedown defense

93%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.15Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap+0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jai HerbertIlia Topuria

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jai Herbert(9 fights)Ilia Topuria(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.1|Blue +8.1

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jai HerbertTargetIlia Topuria

By target zone

33% acc · 91%

Head

46% acc · 85%

50% acc · 5%

Body

75% acc · 15%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

32% acc · 86%

Distance

40% acc · 70%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

67% acc · 9%

Ground

100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jai Herbert rounds

even

Ilia Topuria rounds

Round 1Jai Herbert edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:38Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Ilia Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 63

Sig Strikes

20 / 41

29%

Sig Str %

50.5%

50 / 94

Total Strikes

31 / 55

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

2:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ilia Topuria	12 / 27	23 / 41	1 / 4
1	Jai Herbert	19 / 47	47 / 78	0 / 0
2	Ilia Topuria	8 / 14	8 / 14	0 / 0
2	Jai Herbert	3 / 16	3 / 16	0 / 0

Jai Herbert

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights8

Ilia Topuria

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9