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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Fares Ziam won · U-DEC R3

Elo1512

Elo1528

Jai HerbertvsFares ZiamUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Saturday, July 22, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Fares Ziam won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJai Herbert: StrikervsFares Ziam: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Fares Ziam wins(64.1%)

Actual result: Fares Ziam wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Fares Ziam at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fares Ziam has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Jai Herbert

Red Corner

Fares Ziam

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1512

Elo

1528

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jai Herbert

oldest →

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Mar 22

vs Kyle Nelson · Jul 22

vs Rolando Bedoya · Aug 24

vs Chris Padilla · Mar 25

KOvs Mandel Nallo · Apr 26

latest

Fares Ziam

oldest →

vs Claudio Puelles · Feb 24

KOvs Matt Frevola · Sep 24

vs Mike Davis · Feb 25

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Dec 25

DECvs Tom Nolan · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jai HerbertMetricFares Ziam

3.19

Strikes / min

2.87

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

1.53

52%

Strike defense

65%

0.42

TDs / 15 min

1.73

66%

Takedown defense

71%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.15Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap+1.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jai HerbertFares Ziam

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jai Herbert(9 fights)Fares Ziam(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.9|Blue +15.9

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jai HerbertTargetFares Ziam

By target zone

9% acc · 14%

Head

39% acc · 48%

74% acc · 47%

Body

83% acc · 31%

79% acc · 39%

Leg

81% acc · 21%

By position

32% acc · 78%

Distance

48% acc · 74%

73% acc · 22%

Clinch

80% acc · 26%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jai Herbert rounds

even

Fares Ziam rounds

Round 1Fares Ziam edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:08

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 2Fares Ziam edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control2:04

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 134

Sig Strikes

61 / 113

36%

Sig Str %

54%

58 / 150

Total Strikes

96 / 153

0 / 6

TDs

1 / 5

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:12

Ctrl Time

1:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Fares Ziam	20 / 32	34 / 47	0 / 1
1	Jai Herbert	14 / 42	15 / 46	0 / 0
2	Fares Ziam	20 / 38	34 / 54	1 / 1
2	Jai Herbert	15 / 44	22 / 53	0 / 3
3	Fares Ziam	21 / 43	28 / 52	0 / 3
3	Jai Herbert	20 / 48	21 / 51	0 / 3

Jai Herbert

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights8

Fares Ziam

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11