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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jafel Filho won · SUB R1

Elo1503

Elo1479

Jafel FilhovsOde OsbourneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Saturday, March 16, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jafel Filho won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:27

Style matchupJafel Filho: WrestlervsOde Osbourne: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jafel Filho wins(66.6%)

Actual result: Jafel Filho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ode Osbourne has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ode Osbourne (53.5%).
Ode Osbourne has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jafel Filho

Red Corner

Ode Osbourne

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1503

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jafel Filho

oldest →

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Mar 23

SUBvs Daniel Barez · Jul 23

vs Allan Nascimento · May 25

SUBvs Clayton Carpenter · Oct 25

DECvs Cody Durden · Apr 26

latest

Ode OsbourneL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Aug 23

vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · Sep 24

KOvs Luis Gurule · Apr 25

vs Steve Erceg · Aug 25

vs Alibi Idiris · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jafel FilhoMetricOde Osbourne

1.78

Strikes / min

2.94

1.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.24

50%

Strike defense

49%

2.40

TDs / 15 min

0.94

50%

Takedown defense

66%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jafel FilhoOde Osbourne

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jafel Filho(6 fights)Ode Osbourne(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.9|Blue -23.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jafel FilhoTargetOde Osbourne

By target zone

58% acc · 86%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 10%

Body

0% acc

50% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

43% acc · 14%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

64% acc · 86%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jafel Filho rounds

even

Ode Osbourne rounds

Round 1Jafel Filho edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control3:21

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 35

Sig Strikes

0 / 5

60%

Sig Str %

43 / 66

Total Strikes

1 / 6

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:21

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ode Osbourne	0 / 5	1 / 6	0 / 0	0
1	Jafel Filho	21 / 35	43 / 66	1 / 1	2

Jafel Filho

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Ode Osbourne

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11