← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jafel Filho won · SUB R1

Elo1503

Elo1474

Jafel FilhovsDaniel BarezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Saturday, July 22, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Jafel Filho won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:26

Style matchupJafel Filho: WrestlervsDaniel Barez: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jafel Filho wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Jafel Filho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jafel Filho at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jafel Filho threatens submissions; Daniel Barez has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Daniel Barez has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jafel Filho

Red Corner

Daniel Barez

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1503

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jafel Filho

oldest →

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Mar 23

SUBvs Ode Osbourne · Mar 24

vs Allan Nascimento · May 25

SUBvs Clayton Carpenter · Oct 25

DECvs Cody Durden · Apr 26

latest

Daniel BarezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Sep 24

SUBvs Andre Lima · Mar 25

DECvs Luis Gurule · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jafel FilhoMetricDaniel Barez

1.78

Strikes / min

3.65

1.76

Strikes absorbed / min

5.95

50%

Strike defense

50%

2.40

TDs / 15 min

1.93

50%

Takedown defense

80%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02Δ 2.32 — meaningful gap-2.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jafel FilhoDaniel Barez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jafel Filho(6 fights)Daniel Barez(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.6|Blue -29.6

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jafel FilhoTargetDaniel Barez

By target zone

28% acc · 52%

Head

47% acc · 44%

89% acc · 38%

Body

78% acc · 39%

40% acc · 10%

Leg

75% acc · 17%

By position

39% acc · 100%

Distance

67% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jafel Filho rounds

even

Daniel Barez rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control0:55

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 54

Sig Strikes

18 / 30

38%

Sig Str %

60%

23 / 62

Total Strikes

18 / 30

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:55

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Barez	18 / 30	18 / 30	0 / 0	0
1	Jafel Filho	21 / 54	23 / 62	1 / 4	1

Jafel Filho

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Daniel Barez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3