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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jafel Filho won · SUB R1

Elo1503

Elo1458

Jafel FilhovsClayton CarpenterUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Saturday, October 11, 2025Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Jafel Filho won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:42

Style matchupJafel Filho: WrestlervsClayton Carpenter: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Clayton Carpenter wins(54.3%)

Actual result: Jafel Filho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clayton Carpenter at +106 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jafel Filho threatens submissions; Clayton Carpenter has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Clayton Carpenter threatens submissions; Jafel Filho has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Jafel Filho

Red Corner

Clayton Carpenter

Blue Corner

-124

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+106

(49%)

1503

Elo

1458

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jafel FilhoL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Mar 23

SUBvs Daniel Barez · Jul 23

SUBvs Ode Osbourne · Mar 24

vs Allan Nascimento · May 25

DECvs Cody Durden · Apr 26

latest

Clayton CarpenterL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Juancamilo Ronderos · Feb 23

SUBvs Lucas Rocha · Oct 24

vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Jan 25

DECvs Jose Ochoa · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jafel FilhoMetricClayton Carpenter

1.78

Strikes / min

3.88

1.76

Strikes absorbed / min

4.47

50%

Strike defense

49%

2.40

TDs / 15 min

1.75

50%

Takedown defense

50%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jafel FilhoClayton Carpenter

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jafel Filho(6 fights)Clayton Carpenter(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +45.2|Blue -45.2

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jafel FilhoTargetClayton Carpenter

By target zone

17% acc · 20%

Head

22% acc · 29%

0% acc

Body

38% acc · 43%

67% acc · 80%

Leg

50% acc · 29%

By position

36% acc · 80%

Distance

28% acc · 71%

50% acc · 20%

Clinch

67% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jafel Filho rounds

even

Clayton Carpenter rounds

Round 1Jafel Filho edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:23

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 13

Sig Strikes

7 / 21

38%

Sig Str %

33%

28 / 38

Total Strikes

12 / 27

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:23

Ctrl Time

1:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Clayton Carpenter	7 / 21	12 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Jafel Filho	5 / 13	28 / 38	1 / 1	1

Jafel Filho

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Clayton Carpenter

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights5