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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Allan Nascimento won · U-DEC R3

Elo1503

Elo1523

Jafel FilhovsAllan NascimentoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · Saturday, May 31, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Allan Nascimento won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJafel Filho: WrestlervsAllan Nascimento: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Allan Nascimento wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Allan Nascimento wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Allan Nascimento at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Allan Nascimento threatens submissions; Jafel Filho has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Jafel Filho

Red Corner

Allan Nascimento

Blue Corner

+102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1503

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jafel Filho

oldest →

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Mar 23

SUBvs Daniel Barez · Jul 23

SUBvs Ode Osbourne · Mar 24

SUBvs Clayton Carpenter · Oct 25

DECvs Cody Durden · Apr 26

latest

Allan Nascimento

oldest →

vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Oct 21

vs Jake Hadley · May 22

SUBvs Carlos Hernandez · Jan 23

SUBvs Cody Durden · Nov 25

DECvs Mitch Raposo · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jafel FilhoMetricAllan Nascimento

1.78

Strikes / min

3.06

1.76

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

50%

Strike defense

52%

2.40

TDs / 15 min

1.26

50%

Takedown defense

37%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jafel FilhoAllan Nascimento

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jafel Filho(6 fights)Allan Nascimento(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -20.2|Blue +20.2

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -427.0|Blue +427.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jafel FilhoTargetAllan Nascimento

By target zone

35% acc · 50%

Head

25% acc · 25%

78% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 33%

0% acc

Leg

63% acc · 42%

By position

30% acc · 43%

Distance

47% acc · 75%

75% acc · 43%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

100% acc · 14%

Ground

50% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jafel Filho rounds

even

Allan Nascimento rounds

Round 1Jafel Filho edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control4:07

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Allan Nascimento edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns2

Control1:11

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:35Control

Round 3Allan Nascimento edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control1:02

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 30

Sig Strikes

12 / 24

37.7%

Sig Str %

47.7%

40 / 63

Total Strikes

30 / 58

4 / 7

TDs

1 / 6

58%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

6:20

Ctrl Time

7:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Allan Nascimento	4 / 9	7 / 12	0 / 3	0
1	Jafel Filho	11 / 20	22 / 37	2 / 4	1
2	Allan Nascimento	6 / 9	16 / 24	0 / 0	0
2	Jafel Filho	1 / 4	13 / 17	2 / 3	0
3	Allan Nascimento	2 / 6	7 / 22	1 / 3	1
3	Jafel Filho	2 / 6	5 / 9	0 / 0	0

Jafel Filho

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Allan Nascimento

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6