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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jacobe Smith won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1546
Jacobe Smith
Elo1477
Josiah Harrell

Jacobe SmithvsJosiah HarrellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Saturday, February 21, 2026Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jacobe Smith won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:01

Model Prediction: Jacobe Smith wins(89.8%)

Actual result: Jacobe Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacobe Smith at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jacobe Smith has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Jacobe Smith has 100pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Jacobe Smith has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jacobe Smith
Red Corner
VS
Josiah Harrell
Blue Corner
-320
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
1546
Elo
1477
30
Age
27
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'7"
182.88 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacobe SmithW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Preston Parsons · Jan 25
W
SUBvs Niko Price · Jun 25
latest
Josiah HarrellNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacobe SmithMetricJosiah Harrell
6.89
Strikes / min
2.32
2.78
Strikes absorbed / min
10.94
47%
Strike defense
29%
7.78
TDs / 15 min
0.00
100%
Takedown defense
0%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+4.11Δ 12.73 — meaningful gap-8.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1536 vs 1500Strikes6.9 vs 2.3Takedowns7.8 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.70 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.0
Jacobe SmithJosiah Harrell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601485151015351560← oldermost recent →
Jacobe Smith(3 fights)Josiah Harrell(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +68.6|Blue -68.6
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.3|Blue +49.3
Grappler Score
Red -48.8|Blue +48.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacobe SmithTargetJosiah Harrell

By target zone

18
62% acc · 55%
Head
1
17% acc · 14%
9
90% acc · 27%
Body
3
60% acc · 43%
6
75% acc · 18%
Leg
3
100% acc · 43%

By position

23
62% acc · 70%
Distance
7
50% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
10
100% acc · 30%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jacobe Smith rounds
0
even
0
Josiah Harrell rounds
Round 1Jacobe Smith edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns2
Control0:21
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
33 / 47
Sig Strikes
7 / 14
70%
Sig Str %
50%
37 / 51
Total Strikes
7 / 14
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 2
100%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:21
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Josiah Harrell7 / 147 / 140 / 20
1Jacobe Smith33 / 4737 / 512 / 20

Jacobe Smith

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3

Josiah Harrell

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights1