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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jacob Volkmann won · SUB R1

Elo1490

Jacob VolkmannvsShane RollerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · Friday, October 5, 2012Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Official fight result

Jacob Volkmann won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:38

Style matchupJacob Volkmann: WrestlervsShane Roller: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jacob Volkmann wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Jacob Volkmann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacob Volkmann at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Jacob Volkmann (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jacob Volkmann

Red Corner

Shane Roller

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacob VolkmannL2 streak

oldest →

vs Antonio McKee · Jan 11

vs Danny Castillo · Aug 11

vs Efrain Escudero · Dec 11

SUBvs Paul Sass · May 12

SUBvs Bobby Green · Feb 13

latest

Shane Roller

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Tavares · Mar 11

KOvs Melvin Guillard · Jul 11

SUBvs TJ Grant · Oct 11

vs Michael Johnson · Jan 12

vs John Alessio · Jul 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacob VolkmannMetricShane Roller

1.19

Strikes / min

2.04

1.78

Strikes absorbed / min

2.65

52%

Strike defense

60%

3.19

TDs / 15 min

2.46

52%

Takedown defense

42%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.59evenly matched on net striking-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jacob VolkmannShane Roller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jacob Volkmann(8 fights)Shane Roller(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacob VolkmannTargetShane Roller

By target zone

33% acc · 75%

Head

0% acc

50% acc · 25%

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

19% acc · 38%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

56% acc · 63%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jacob Volkmann rounds

even

Shane Roller rounds

Round 1Jacob Volkmann edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:23

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 25

Sig Strikes

0 / 7

32%

Sig Str %

14 / 32

Total Strikes

0 / 7

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:23

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shane Roller	0 / 7	0 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Jacob Volkmann	8 / 25	14 / 32	1 / 4	2

Jacob Volkmann

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Shane Roller

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6