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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Paul Sass won · SUB R1
Elo1490
Jacob Volkmann
Elo1352
Paul Sass

Jacob VolkmannvsPaul SassUFC Prediction Result

UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · Saturday, May 26, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Paul Sass won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:54

Model Prediction: Jacob Volkmann wins(81.9%)

Actual result: Paul Sass wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacob Volkmann at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Paul Sass threatens submissions; Jacob Volkmann has lost 100% of fights by sub.
  • Jacob Volkmann has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jacob Volkmann (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jacob Volkmann
Red Corner
VS
Paul Sass
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+175
(36%)
1490
Elo
1352
45
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacob Volkmann
oldest →
W
vs Antonio McKee · Jan 11
W
vs Danny Castillo · Aug 11
W
vs Efrain Escudero · Dec 11
W
SUBvs Shane Roller · Oct 12
L
SUBvs Bobby Green · Feb 13
latest
Paul SassL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mark Holst · Oct 10
W
SUBvs Michael Johnson · Oct 11
L
SUBvs Matt Wiman · Sep 12
L
vs Danny Castillo · Feb 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacob VolkmannMetricPaul Sass
1.19
Strikes / min
0.53
1.78
Strikes absorbed / min
1.90
52%
Strike defense
51%
3.19
TDs / 15 min
0.53
52%
Takedown defense
33%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
7.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.59evenly matched on net striking-1.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1585 vs 1535Strikes16.9 vs 2.0Takedowns2.7 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.86 vs 3.50Form1.0 vs 1.0
Jacob VolkmannPaul Sass

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Jacob Volkmann(8 fights)Paul Sass(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.2|Blue -138.2
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -90.0|Blue +90.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacob VolkmannTargetPaul Sass

By target zone

1
33% acc · 50%
Head
1
25% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 50%
Body
0
0
0% acc
Leg
0

By position

2
40% acc · 100%
Distance
1
25% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jacob Volkmann rounds
0
even
0
Paul Sass rounds
Round 1Jacob Volkmann edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control1:31
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
2 / 5
Sig Strikes
1 / 4
40%
Sig Str %
25%
3 / 6
Total Strikes
2 / 7
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
1:31
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Paul Sass1 / 42 / 70 / 02
1Jacob Volkmann2 / 53 / 60 / 00

Jacob Volkmann

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8

Paul Sass

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights5