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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jacob Volkmann won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1357

Jacob VolkmannvsEfrain EscuderoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · Friday, December 30, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jacob Volkmann won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJacob Volkmann: WrestlervsEfrain Escudero: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jacob Volkmann wins(76.3%)

Actual result: Jacob Volkmann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacob Volkmann at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Efrain Escudero has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Jacob Volkmann (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jacob Volkmann

Red Corner

Efrain Escudero

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1490

Elo

1357

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacob Volkmann

oldest →

vs Antonio McKee · Jan 11

vs Danny Castillo · Aug 11

SUBvs Paul Sass · May 12

SUBvs Shane Roller · Oct 12

SUBvs Bobby Green · Feb 13

latest

Efrain EscuderoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Leonardo Santos · Sep 14

vs Rodrigo de Lima · Feb 15

SUBvs Drew Dober · Jun 15

vs Leandro Silva · Nov 15

vs Kevin Lee · Apr 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacob VolkmannMetricEfrain Escudero

1.19

Strikes / min

2.92

1.78

Strikes absorbed / min

2.30

52%

Strike defense

63%

3.19

TDs / 15 min

1.31

52%

Takedown defense

66%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.59Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jacob VolkmannEfrain Escudero

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jacob Volkmann(8 fights)Efrain Escudero(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +133.4|Blue -133.4

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -333.0|Blue +333.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacob VolkmannTargetEfrain Escudero

By target zone

50% acc · 76%

Head

36% acc · 71%

100% acc · 18%

Body

50% acc · 14%

17% acc · 6%

Leg

50% acc · 14%

By position

18% acc · 18%

Distance

17% acc · 29%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

80% acc · 57%

76% acc · 76%

Ground

100% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jacob Volkmann rounds

even

Efrain Escudero rounds

Round 1Jacob Volkmann edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control4:14

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jacob Volkmann edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control4:13

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jacob Volkmann edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:53

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 35

Sig Strikes

7 / 18

50.3%

Sig Str %

29%

85 / 108

Total Strikes

53 / 64

3 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

32.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:20

Ctrl Time

1:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Efrain Escudero	1 / 3	12 / 14	0 / 0	1
1	Jacob Volkmann	7 / 17	37 / 47	0 / 0	1
2	Efrain Escudero	0 / 4	16 / 20	0 / 0	1
2	Jacob Volkmann	4 / 9	32 / 39	2 / 5	1
3	Efrain Escudero	6 / 11	25 / 30	0 / 0	2
3	Jacob Volkmann	6 / 9	16 / 22	1 / 4	0

Jacob Volkmann

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Efrain Escudero

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9