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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jacob Volkmann won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1356

Jacob VolkmannvsDanny CastilloUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · Sunday, August 14, 2011Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Jacob Volkmann won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJacob Volkmann: WrestlervsDanny Castillo: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Danny Castillo wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Jacob Volkmann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Castillo at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Danny Castillo has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Jacob Volkmann (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jacob Volkmann

Red Corner

Danny Castillo

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1490

Elo

1356

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jacob Volkmann

oldest →

vs Antonio McKee · Jan 11

vs Efrain Escudero · Dec 11

SUBvs Paul Sass · May 12

SUBvs Shane Roller · Oct 12

SUBvs Bobby Green · Feb 13

latest

Danny CastilloL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14

vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14

KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15

vs Jim Miller · Jul 15

vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jacob VolkmannMetricDanny Castillo

1.19

Strikes / min

2.57

1.78

Strikes absorbed / min

1.96

52%

Strike defense

62%

3.19

TDs / 15 min

2.95

52%

Takedown defense

63%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.59Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jacob VolkmannDanny Castillo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jacob Volkmann(8 fights)Danny Castillo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.3|Blue -134.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +61.0|Blue -61.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jacob VolkmannTargetDanny Castillo

By target zone

31% acc · 67%

Head

20% acc · 9%

50% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 41%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

23% acc · 50%

Distance

47% acc · 32%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 50%

Ground

100% acc · 55%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jacob Volkmann rounds

even

Danny Castillo rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control1:55

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:03Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control2:28

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:02Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control3:25

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 16

Sig Strikes

22 / 30

48%

Sig Str %

68%

39 / 51

Total Strikes

47 / 57

3 / 5

TDs

1 / 4

77.7%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

7:48

Ctrl Time

3:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Danny Castillo	5 / 10	10 / 16	0 / 1	0
1	Jacob Volkmann	1 / 9	17 / 26	1 / 1	1
2	Danny Castillo	2 / 3	7 / 9	1 / 3	0
2	Jacob Volkmann	1 / 3	7 / 10	1 / 1	2
3	Danny Castillo	15 / 17	30 / 32	0 / 0	0
3	Jacob Volkmann	4 / 4	15 / 15	1 / 3	3

Jacob Volkmann

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8

Danny Castillo

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14