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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jack Shore won · SUB R2

Elo1496

Elo1453

Jack ShorevsMakwan AmirkhaniUFC Prediction Result

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Saturday, March 18, 2023London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Jack Shore won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:27

Style matchupJack Shore: WrestlervsMakwan Amirkhani: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jack Shore wins(83.5%)

Actual result: Jack Shore wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Shore at -560 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jack Shore enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Makwan Amirkhani threatens submissions; Jack Shore has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Jack Shore has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jack Shore has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Makwan Amirkhani (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jack Shore

Red Corner

Makwan Amirkhani

Blue Corner

-560

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+420

(19%)

1496

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack ShoreL3 streak

oldest →

vs Liudvik Sholinian · Sep 21

vs Timur Valiev · Mar 22

SUBvs Ricky Simon · Jul 22

KOvs Joanderson Brito · May 24

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Nov 24

latest

Makwan Amirkhani

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Oct 20

vs Kamuela Kirk · Jun 21

KOvs Lerone Murphy · Oct 21

SUBvs Mike Grundy · Mar 22

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack ShoreMetricMakwan Amirkhani

3.60

Strikes / min

1.33

2.31

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

56%

Strike defense

46%

3.22

TDs / 15 min

3.96

74%

Takedown defense

35%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.29Δ 2.94 — meaningful gap-1.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jack ShoreMakwan Amirkhani

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jack Shore(9 fights)Makwan Amirkhani(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.1|Blue -42.1

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack ShoreTargetMakwan Amirkhani

By target zone

57% acc · 82%

Head

32% acc · 60%

100% acc · 14%

Body

80% acc · 40%

50% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

56% acc · 79%

Distance

30% acc · 60%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 40%

80% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jack Shore rounds

even

Makwan Amirkhani rounds

Round 1Makwan Amirkhani edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:33

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:14Control

Round 2Jack Shore edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control1:42

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 46

Sig Strikes

10 / 24

53%

Sig Str %

50%

45 / 64

Total Strikes

14 / 28

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:15

Ctrl Time

3:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Makwan Amirkhani	6 / 8	9 / 11	1 / 1	0
1	Jack Shore	5 / 14	19 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Makwan Amirkhani	4 / 16	5 / 17	0 / 2	0
2	Jack Shore	23 / 32	26 / 35	1 / 1	1

Jack Shore

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9

Makwan Amirkhani

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14