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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Santos won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1391

Elo1432

Jack MarshmanvsThiago SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · Sunday, February 19, 2017Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Official fight result

Thiago Santos won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:21

Model Prediction: Jack Marshman wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Thiago Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Marshman at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Santos has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jack Marshman

Red Corner

Thiago Santos

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1391

Elo

1432

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack MarshmanL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Oct 17

vs Karl Roberson · Nov 18

vs John Phillips · Mar 19

SUBvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jul 19

vs Sean Strickland · Oct 20

latest

Thiago SantosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Nov 20

vs Aleksandar Rakic · Mar 21

vs Johnny Walker · Oct 21

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Mar 22

KOvs Jamahal Hill · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack MarshmanMetricThiago Santos

2.74

Strikes / min

3.72

4.19

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

56%

Strike defense

53%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.88

20%

Takedown defense

65%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.45Δ 2.60 — meaningful gap+1.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jack MarshmanThiago Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jack Marshman(8 fights)Thiago Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -41.4|Blue +41.4

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack MarshmanTargetThiago Santos

By target zone

14% acc · 100%

Head

28% acc · 52%

0% acc

Body

33% acc · 15%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

12% acc · 83%

Distance

33% acc · 67%

25% acc · 17%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

53% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jack Marshman rounds

even

Thiago Santos rounds

Round 1Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:37Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Thiago Santos edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 46

Sig Strikes

27 / 71

11.5%

Sig Str %

38%

11 / 51

Total Strikes

32 / 76

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

1:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thiago Santos	16 / 44	21 / 49	1 / 2
1	Jack Marshman	5 / 36	10 / 41	0 / 0
2	Thiago Santos	11 / 27	11 / 27	0 / 0
2	Jack Marshman	1 / 10	1 / 10	0 / 0

Jack Marshman

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Thiago Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24