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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jack Marshman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1391

Elo1491

Jack MarshmanvsRyan JanesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · Sunday, July 16, 2017Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Jack Marshman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ryan Janes wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Jack Marshman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Janes at +400 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Janes has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jack Marshman

Red Corner

Ryan Janes

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1391

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack MarshmanL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Oct 17

vs Karl Roberson · Nov 18

vs John Phillips · Mar 19

SUBvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jul 19

vs Sean Strickland · Oct 20

latest

Ryan Janes

oldest →

vs Keith Berish · Dec 16

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Feb 17

KOvs Andrew Sanchez · Dec 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack MarshmanMetricRyan Janes

2.74

Strikes / min

7.69

4.19

Strikes absorbed / min

5.53

56%

Strike defense

59%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.35

20%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.45Δ 3.61 — meaningful gap+2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jack MarshmanRyan Janes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jack Marshman(8 fights)Ryan Janes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -100.1|Blue +100.1

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack MarshmanTargetRyan Janes

By target zone

31% acc · 73%

Head

38% acc · 70%

38% acc · 15%

Body

66% acc · 25%

90% acc · 12%

Leg

80% acc · 5%

By position

34% acc · 97%

Distance

40% acc · 82%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

83% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jack Marshman rounds

even

Ryan Janes rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Jack Marshman edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 3Ryan Janes edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 217

Sig Strikes

83 / 189

34.3%

Sig Str %

42.7%

83 / 225

Total Strikes

119 / 227

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ryan Janes	25 / 56	27 / 58	0 / 0
1	Jack Marshman	24 / 82	25 / 83	0 / 0
2	Ryan Janes	18 / 47	44 / 75	0 / 0
2	Jack Marshman	23 / 66	29 / 72	0 / 0
3	Ryan Janes	40 / 86	48 / 94	0 / 0
3	Jack Marshman	28 / 69	29 / 70	0 / 0

Jack Marshman

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Ryan Janes

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4