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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jack Marshman won · S-DEC R3

Elo1391

Elo1390

Jack MarshmanvsJohn PhillipsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 16, 2019London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Jack Marshman won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jack Marshman wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Jack Marshman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Marshman at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jack Marshman enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors John Phillips (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jack Marshman

Red Corner

John Phillips

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1391

Elo

1390

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack MarshmanL4 streak

oldest →

vs Ryan Janes · Jul 17

SUBvs Antonio Carlos Junior · Oct 17

vs Karl Roberson · Nov 18

SUBvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Jul 19

vs Sean Strickland · Oct 20

latest

John PhillipsL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Charles Byrd · Mar 18

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Nov 18

KOvs Alen Amedovski · Sep 19

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Jul 20

vs Junyong Park · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack MarshmanMetricJohn Phillips

2.74

Strikes / min

1.72

4.19

Strikes absorbed / min

4.03

56%

Strike defense

49%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

20%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.45evenly matched on net striking-2.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jack MarshmanJohn Phillips

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jack Marshman(8 fights)John Phillips(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack MarshmanTargetJohn Phillips

By target zone

14% acc · 61%

Head

21% acc · 47%

91% acc · 32%

Body

53% acc · 25%

67% acc · 6%

Leg

90% acc · 28%

By position

21% acc · 100%

Distance

32% acc · 91%

Clinch

60% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jack Marshman rounds

even

John Phillips rounds

Round 1John Phillips edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 149

Sig Strikes

32 / 95

23%

Sig Str %

34.7%

31 / 149

Total Strikes

35 / 99

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Phillips	11 / 32	14 / 36	0 / 0
1	Jack Marshman	11 / 31	11 / 31	0 / 0
2	John Phillips	10 / 23	10 / 23	0 / 0
2	Jack Marshman	9 / 50	9 / 50	0 / 0
3	John Phillips	11 / 40	11 / 40	0 / 0
3	Jack Marshman	11 / 68	11 / 68	0 / 0

Jack Marshman

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

John Phillips

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6