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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Jack Jenkins won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1509
Elo1483
Herbert Burns

Jack JenkinsvsHerbert BurnsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Saturday, August 17, 2024Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Jack Jenkins won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:48

Style matchupJack Jenkins: Elusive strikervsHerbert Burns: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Jack Jenkins wins(69.9%)

Actual result: Jack Jenkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Jenkins at -1050 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Herbert Burns enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Herbert Burns is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jack Jenkins has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Herbert Burns threatens submissions; Jack Jenkins has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Jack Jenkins has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jack Jenkins (52.9%).
  • Herbert Burns has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jack Jenkins
Red Corner
VS
Herbert Burns
Blue Corner
-1050
(91%)
Vegas Odds
+600
(14%)
1509
Elo
1483
32
Age
38
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'9"
172.72 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack Jenkins
oldest →
W
vs Don Shainis · Feb 23
W
vs Jamall Emmers · Jun 23
L
KOvs Chepe Mariscal · Sep 23
L
SUBvs Gabriel Santos · Feb 25
W
vs Ramon Taveras · Sep 25
latest
Herbert BurnsL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Nate Landwehr · Jan 20
W
SUBvs Evan Dunham · Jun 20
L
KOvs Daniel Pineda · Aug 20
L
KOvs Bill Algeo · Jul 22
L
KOvs Julio Arce · Mar 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack JenkinsMetricHerbert Burns
4.48
Strikes / min
1.86
2.95
Strikes absorbed / min
5.17
59%
Strike defense
41%
1.98
TDs / 15 min
2.94
71%
Takedown defense
66%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.53Δ 4.84 — meaningful gap-3.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1482Strikes4.8 vs 1.9Takedowns2.1 vs 2.9Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.80Form0.2 vs -0.9
Jack JenkinsHerbert Burns

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Jack Jenkins(6 fights)Herbert Burns(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +26.6|Blue -26.6
Recent Form
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Layoff
Red +203.0|Blue -203.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack JenkinsTargetHerbert Burns

By target zone

44
46% acc · 60%
Head
11
18% acc · 46%
15
100% acc · 21%
Body
7
70% acc · 29%
14
88% acc · 19%
Leg
6
75% acc · 25%

By position

59
60% acc · 81%
Distance
21
29% acc · 88%
0
0% acc
Clinch
3
75% acc · 13%
14
54% acc · 19%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Jack Jenkins rounds
0
even
0
Herbert Burns rounds
Round 1Jack Jenkins edged it
Sig. strikes39
Takedowns0
Control0:03
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:09Control
Round 2Jack Jenkins edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control2:15
Knockdowns1
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:45Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Jack Jenkins edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:26
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
73 / 126
Sig Strikes
24 / 79
58%
Sig Str %
51.3%
98 / 152
Total Strikes
45 / 101
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 9
—
TD %
22%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:44
Ctrl Time
1:54

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Herbert Burns15 / 5328 / 661 / 20
1Jack Jenkins39 / 6653 / 800 / 00
2Herbert Burns6 / 2314 / 321 / 60
2Jack Jenkins20 / 3831 / 500 / 00
3Herbert Burns3 / 33 / 30 / 10
3Jack Jenkins14 / 2214 / 220 / 00

Jack Jenkins

StanceSwitch
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights6

Herbert Burns

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6