Featherweight

3 Rounds

Gabriel Santos won · SUB R3

Elo1509

Elo1512

Jack JenkinsvsGabriel SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Saturday, February 8, 2025Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Gabriel Santos won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:06

Style matchupJack Jenkins: Elusive strikervsGabriel Santos: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Gabriel Santos wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Gabriel Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gabriel Santos at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gabriel Santos threatens submissions; Jack Jenkins has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Jack Jenkins has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gabriel Santos has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jack Jenkins (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jack Jenkins

Red Corner

Gabriel Santos

Blue Corner

+188

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-225

(69%)

1509

Elo

1512

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jack JenkinsW2 streak

oldest →

vs Don Shainis · Feb 23

vs Jamall Emmers · Jun 23

KOvs Chepe Mariscal · Sep 23

KOvs Herbert Burns · Aug 24

vs Ramon Taveras · Sep 25

latest

Gabriel Santos

oldest →

vs Lerone Murphy · Mar 23

KOvs David Onama · Jun 23

vs Yizha · Sep 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jack JenkinsMetricGabriel Santos

4.48

Strikes / min

4.35

2.95

Strikes absorbed / min

4.31

59%

Strike defense

45%

1.98

TDs / 15 min

3.80

71%

Takedown defense

87%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.53Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap+0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jack JenkinsGabriel Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jack Jenkins(6 fights)Gabriel Santos(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.7|Blue +2.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jack JenkinsTargetGabriel Santos

By target zone

63% acc · 65%

Head

59% acc · 67%

83% acc · 15%

Body

67% acc · 15%

100% acc · 21%

Leg

88% acc · 18%

By position

59% acc · 38%

Distance

51% acc · 59%

83% acc · 15%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

80% acc · 47%

Ground

100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jack Jenkins rounds

even

Gabriel Santos rounds

Round 1Jack Jenkins edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control2:17

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:50Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Gabriel Santos edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:03

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:48Control

Round 3Gabriel Santos edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 48

Sig Strikes

39 / 61

74%

Sig Str %

62%

39 / 55

Total Strikes

96 / 123

0 / 1

TDs

4 / 7

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:20

Ctrl Time

6:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gabriel Santos	9 / 20	22 / 34	1 / 2	1
1	Jack Jenkins	28 / 36	33 / 43	0 / 0	0
2	Gabriel Santos	24 / 32	58 / 69	1 / 2	0
2	Jack Jenkins	5 / 11	5 / 11	0 / 1	0
3	Gabriel Santos	6 / 9	16 / 20	2 / 3	1
3	Jack Jenkins	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0

Jack Jenkins

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Gabriel Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4